Ukraine russia invasion predictions

[Cipher]

Interesting ..... Chinese banks have been restricted in trading in Russian commodities and Xi has urged Russia to negotiate ...... Apparently all is not rosy as it appears between China and Russia ....
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...an-commodities

Wow no communist party purity left in the world. Comply or risk profit. And they comply.
I should have thought the Party would destroy them for such a thing as defying national policy.

I wonder what Vlad will do if Xi makes a play for eastera Siberia.

[wyly]

Interesting ..... Chinese banks have been restricted in trading in Russian commodities and Xi has urged Russia to negotiate ...... Apparently all is not rosy as it appears between China and Russia ....
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...an-commodities

China's economy is hurting it's not going to let any relationship with Russia take it down. Russia is a small market for china's industry, 144 million consumers with not a lot of disposable income vs a billion relatively well off consumers in NATO countries. If China needs to make a choice cash rules.

[LAB3]

Interesting ..... Chinese banks have been restricted in trading in Russian commodities and Xi has urged Russia to negotiate ...... Apparently all is not rosy as it appears between China and Russia ....
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...an-commodities

Seems to me there was some scuttlebutt surrounding the concept of a "Petro-Euro" a decade or so ago. Wonder if the idea of a "Petro-Yuan" is being considered? The issue seems to be about the use of dollars after all...

My guess is the Chinese will sit things out a little while to see how things pan out, they're still pretty shaky from the real estate defaults they've been dealing with this last several months on top of the economic hits due to Covid. It's in their basic cultural philosophy to play the LONG game and keep themselves sheltered from outside influences as best they can.

[wyly]

Putin not a money guy?? he has an estimated net worth of $200 billion. Oligarchs won't like losing their cash but have no choice his hit squad will track anyone down who opposes him. Russia isn't a big enough market to keep China's industry working.

[Buffalo Bill]

I think the next question is how committed will the Ukrainian people be to guerilla warfare?
Will they react the way the Iraqi people did to the US and allied occupation?
Set numerous IED and truck bombs?
Give 'em hell!

[LAB3]

Putin not a money guy?? he has an estimated net worth of $200 billion. Oligarchs won't like losing their cash but have no choice his hit squad will track anyone down who opposes him. Russia isn't a big enough market to keep China's industry working.

He has FAR more personal interest in keeping the palms greased and pockets lined for his fellow Oligarchs. If there's one thing we've learned from the stories of high level organized crime figures is that hit squads tend to align themselves with whomever is giving them the best pay and fringe benefits.

[Rob S.]

Here's my take, and I don't like it.

Three of my grandparents were born in the Ukraine. I never heard them say the word Ukraine, they called it "the old country," occasionally they called it Russia. The only reason I know it was Ukraine was because I asked them what the nearest city was, and they told me, "Kiev."

This was in the 1890's. Even my fourth ancestor, who was born in the Polish city of Zyardow, called it "Rush-Poland," because it was ruled by the Czar.

That's just the way it was, and apparently how Csar Vladimir wants it to be again.

[LAB3]

Here's my take, and I don't like it.

Three of my grandparents were born in the Ukraine. I never heard them say the word Ukraine, they called it "the old country," occasionally they called it Russia. The only reason I know it was Ukraine was because I asked them what the nearest city was, and they told me, "Kiev."

This was in the 1890's. Even my fourth ancestor, who was born in the Polish city of Zyardow, called it "Rush-Poland," because it was ruled by the Czar.

That's just the way it was, and apparently how Csar Vladimir wants it to be again.

My family name comes from Galicia, about 30 clicks south of Krakow, it was part of the Austro-Hungarian empire when they left in the 1890's. My mothers side carries a VERY ethnic Polish surname and immigrated from Prussia, that particular town is part of Germany today. At that time there was no "Poland" as we knew it today and people tended to identify by their ethnicity as opposed to geographic location. The family of a good friend of mine was from a town not far from where my family surname is from and he identifies himself as Red Ruthenian. Again, it's more a matter of ethnicity than geographic location. Now go fix me a Bialy!

[Gorminrider]

Putin not a money guy?? he has an estimated net worth of $200 billion. Oligarchs won't like losing their cash but have no choice his hit squad will track anyone down who opposes him. Russia isn't a big enough market to keep China's industry working.

I mean he comes from a political slant and not a financial one. He's not like Trump. Anyways, as long as he's tsar, he'll never spend a ruble- it's all laid on for him. Sure- minions are shovelling rubles into accounts for him but that goes with the territory. I don't think a palace in Grosvenor square or Palm Beach is his goal.

Russia isn't a big enough market to keep China's industry working

.No, but Russia is self-sufficient and I think China's billion people can suck up any extra Butyes, the Middle Kingdom is a trading nation at heart with lots of capital offshore.
....It sounds today that the Russians are paying in bodybags. Maybe enough to ruin Putin's plans. He may have to march out as quick as he marched in....or suffer a weeping pustule of dissent that's maybe even enough for the Russians to get fed up and turf him. One sort of hopes- but the bloodshed is, whatever way it goes, useless.

[bccap]

Manufacturing is 13.6% of Russia's GDP .... And most of that is the auto industry . Russia is far from self sufficient ..... And with the world cutting them off from trade Joe Sixvodka is going to find the shelves bare at his local big box store ......

[Cipher]

Manufacturing is 13.6% of Russia's GDP .... And most of that is the auto industry . Russia is far from self sufficient ..... And with the world cutting them off from trade Joe Sixvodka is going to find the shelves bare at his local big box store ......

And no easy bus tours to Finland for vodka that has no bits of potato floating in it.

[wyly]

He has FAR more personal interest in keeping the palms greased and pockets lined for his fellow Oligarchs. If there's one thing we've learned from the stories of high level organized crime figures is that hit squads tend to align themselves with whomever is giving them the best pay and fringe benefits.

The Oligarchs around him won't say no to him, he's got them in his pocket they've seen what's happen to others who opposed him.

He's a godfather like no other he will send his state hit squads anywhere on the planet to eliminate them. That's the logic behind nerve agent and polonium poisonings that only Putin could sanction, he's sending a message to the Oligarchs that he's responsible and I'll get you anywhere you go.

[LAB3]

The Oligarchs around him won't say no to him, he's got them in his pocket they've seen what's happen to others who opposed him.

He's a godfather like no other he will send his state hit squads anywhere on the planet to eliminate them. That's the logic behind nerve agent and polonium poisonings that only Putin could sanction, he's sending a message to the Oligarchs that he's responsible and I'll get you anywhere you go.

That's the point I'm making. If the money and power stops trickling downhill to the lessor big-shots them they'll take action to turn the spigot back on. Outsiders can't touch him but those closest to him can.

[Baatfam]

Dozens of people were wounded during the night in Kyiv, but the Ukrainian government is still in control of the capital, mayor Vitali Klitschko said on Saturday. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced on Saturday that Turkey will stop Russian warships from passing through the Black Sea. British sea, land and air forces have arrived in eastern Europe to reinforce NATO’s eastern front, the UK Defence Ministry said on Saturday.
Video via @ABCNewsLive

Bold added by me....

EDIT: Apparently, Turkey cannot do that, and has not done that.

[bccap]

Looks like India is falling in with Vlad ..... Likely because the vast majority of their military equipment comes from there .....