Ukraine russia invasion predictions

[GS1100GZ]

Maybe China invades Taiwan after the Olympics. China and Russia have been talking and may have an agreement to start a 2 theater conflict. That would make it easier for both countries to achieve their objective.

[RustyTank]

Maybe China invades Taiwan after the Olympics. China and Russia have been talking and may have an agreement to start a 2 theater conflict. That would make it easier for both countries to achieve their objective.

uhg...China and Taiwan. I forgot about that

[wyly]

uhg...China and Taiwan. I forgot about that

Taiwan has spent decades preparing for an invasion it's military is well equipped and trained much more so than the Ukraine. Invading the island fortress of Taiwan is a much bigger challenge for China than it is for Russian tanks crossing open grasslands. China will pay a very high price if it attempts an invasion and then there has to be this thought in their heads, did Taiwan really stop developing nuclear weapons as they claimed they did.

[bwringer]

Maybe China invades Taiwan after the Olympics. China and Russia have been talking and may have an agreement to start a 2 theater conflict. That would make it easier for both countries to achieve their objective.

That's a big yikes. Hope not.

[wyly]

That's a big yikes. Hope not.

It's a safe bet China won't invade or threaten Taiwan while they're hosting Olympics.

[RustyTank]

I'm sure some of you read or heard this headline today: The U.S. considers moving troops to Eastern Europe, link to a very short NPR article.

[GS1150Pilot]

This is a place where well-placed, talented journalists could make a huge difference.

[Cipher]

This is a place where well-placed, talented journalists could make a huge difference.

CNN head office?

[GS1150Pilot]

CNN head office?

Your back yard?

[Peppermint Patti]

I wonder what is really happening behind the scenes... Is this a side-show to distract our attention from what happened in the dumbs, or something else?
No one I know wants to see the US in another war! Media... hahahahaha...

[LAB3]

Started to look into this when it first popped up in my news feed and asked myself "What does Russia have to gain?"

It doesn't look like The Ukraine has much in the way of resources worth spending billions on a war to get control of. The Ukraine has a very low standard of living which may imply that there's money to be made by introducing better management and production techniques which puts more into the pockets of the fat cats and by proxy, raises the standard of living overall for the population.

There's also the possibility this is being done to gain leverage over Russia's hydrocarbon exports to Europe. There was heavy investment in a pipeline to bring natural gas to Germany which Germany backed out of just prior to it being competed. There's plenty of other avenues of hydrocarbon exports as well and if you're limited to selling only a few products it makes sense to maximize profits.

As to this being an old-fashion power grab, it just doesn't make sense. There has to be a "Back end" to make the expense worth while. For now I'm going to remain optimistic to the idea this is nothing more than posturing, plain and simple.

[GS1150Pilot]

First of all, Putin has a long memory-of the old Soviet Union, of offenses against that dinosaur (dead? Godzilla?), and, so, of what happened in Donbas when Russia was annexing Crimea. Essentially, he still sees Ukraine as part of the Soviet Union, which is what he is seeking to restore as his legacy. Further, making threats that force western nations to negotiate fast serves his strategy well. The long game? One of two things: He gets Ukraine back under the hammer and sickle, or he gets major concessions from the west.

[Rob S.]

There's another thing to consider: Russia is ruled by a dictator, it's strictly a one-man show. A comfortable retirement is by no means guaranteed. He has billions stashed away, but that could be snatched away from him the moment he loses power.

It's the same thing with Xi in China. Both men want to rule forever, and have made changes to their countries to make that 'legal'. Both are approaching their seventies, and know that more than just their creature comforts are at risk. Their very lives are at stake.

What diverts a country's attention better than war? Look at the phenomenal approval ratings George Bush enjoyed after 9/11 (peaked at 92%!). Rally 'round the flag, boys!

[Cipher]

Started to look into this when it first popped up in my news feed and asked myself "What does Russia have to gain?"

It doesn't look like The Ukraine has much in the way of resources worth spending billions on a war to get control of. The Ukraine has a very low standard of living which may imply that there's money to be made by introducing better management and production techniques which puts more into the pockets of the fat cats and by proxy, raises the standard of living overall for the population.

There's also the possibility this is being done to gain leverage over Russia's hydrocarbon exports to Europe. There was heavy investment in a pipeline to bring natural gas to Germany which Germany backed out of just prior to it being competed. There's plenty of other avenues of hydrocarbon exports as well and if you're limited to selling only a few products it makes sense to maximize profits.

As to this being an old-fashion power grab, it just doesn't make sense. There has to be a "Back end" to make the expense worth while. For now I'm going to remain optimistic to the idea this is nothing more than posturing, plain and simple.

Nuclear war being unwinnable anyone with half a brain can see its important to have a large buffer around your borders.
Thats what this is for and what the acquisition of eastern Europe was after world war 2.

I seriously doubt Ukraine is any poorer than most parts of Russia.

The west has dicked about and attempted to destabilize Russia for years with their policies of NATO encroachment on former USSR client states.
Problem is they may have had a stronger position in the initial phases of the policy than they do now.

Its always shocking to me how the media produces propaganda for their respective governments. This is not about self-determination or freedom its about realpolitik.

The collapse of CCCP was economic not military and was very much the result of an endless vicious war waged by the west.

Biden is weak and Boris ( seriously a Slavic named UK PM ) is dangerously unstable and suffering an onslaught that may remove him no doubt in part instigated by Russian money.

[wyly]

This is about nationalism and staying in power. Putin is a crime lord and Russia is corrupt mafia state he likely is the worlds wealthiest person and not Musk or Bezos so keeping control of his wealth and out of a Russian prison is important. What better way to divert attention from himself than to create a nationalistic diversion this is no different than China and Tibet, Xinjiang and the south China Sea or Hitler with his territorial claims. Appeal to a populace that clings to past delusional glories of great empires.

What small countries will learn from this is build nukes and you won't be invaded.

I'm sure the Ukraine now regrets giving up it's nuclear arsenal expecting the world to backup the treaty it signed, it gave up as many 3000 nuclear weapons on condition that it's borders be respected by Russia. Had it held on to 50 or so nukes it wouldn't be facing imminent invasion now.