Ukraine russia invasion predictions

[bccap]

When I originally heard that the world's retaliation was going to be sanctions I figured ho hum nothing will change ..... But this time the world has been united and effectively shut Russia down ..... Their stock market is still closed ..... Their banks are worth pennies on the dollar ...... The same with their oil companies ..... Major businesses are pulling out { Did you hear that McDonalds... Get with the program } ..... Unemployment and poverty is going to happen quickly if it hasn't already happened ..... Even the Oligarchs yachts are being confiscated if they show up in a European port ......

I don't know if the Oligarchs control Putin or it's the other way around but either way his circle of supporters has to be shrinking big time ......

https://www.msnbc.com/the-last-word/watch/yachts-linked-to-sanctioned-russian-billionaires-seized-134646341793

[earlfor]

When I originally heard that the world's retaliation was going to be sanctions I figured ho hum nothing will change ..... But this time the world has been united and effectively shut Russia down ..... Their stock market is still closed ..... Their banks are worth pennies on the dollar ...... The same with their oil companies ..... Major businesses are pulling out { Did you hear that McDonalds... Get with the program } ..... Unemployment and poverty is going to happen quickly if it hasn't already happened ..... Even the Oligarchs yachts are being confiscated if they show up in a European port ......

I don't know if the Oligarchs control Putin or it's the other way around but either way his circle of supporters has to be shrinking big time ......
https://www.msnbc.com/the-last-word/...d-134646341793

At this stage, I don't know which will collapse first, Russia or Ukraine.

[Grimly]

Imo, a No-Fly Zone will be rapidly followed by a Nuke-Fly Zone.
Don't say I didn't warn ya.
Putin is the Mad Hatter of Moscow, for whatever weird reason, chemical or medical.

[wyly]

When I originally heard that the world's retaliation was going to be sanctions I figured ho hum nothing will change ..... But this time the world has been united and effectively shut Russia down ..... Their stock market is still closed ..... Their banks are worth pennies on the dollar ...... The same with their oil companies ..... Major businesses are pulling out { Did you hear that McDonalds... Get with the program } ..... Unemployment and poverty is going to happen quickly if it hasn't already happened ..... Even the Oligarchs yachts are being confiscated if they show up in a European port ......

I don't know if the Oligarchs control Putin or it's the other way around but either way his circle of supporters has to be shrinking big time ......
https://www.msnbc.com/the-last-word/...d-134646341793

Putin has taken out Oligarchs that opposed him so he controls the oligarchs with fear. The west can sanction Russia to North Korea level poverty but the Putin, the Oligarchs and generals just as like in North Korea don't suffer. They may despise him but as long as they're not personally suffering they'll shut up and keep their heads down. With protesters facing arrest and prison time he could stifle any opposition to remove him, who is going to take the personal risk to challenge him.

[Gorminrider]

I think poking a paranoid bear is a really bad idea. I think cornering one is worse. I don't think it's right to invade Ukraine period. But I'm not happy the Russian people will suffer either. Isolation is a good tool for dictators. I think there are issues behind the broad strokes of jingoism that inflame the mass opinion. This is where politicians prove their mettle. Fingers crossed. This isn't Afghanistan where you can parachute in stinger missiles and sit back in safety to enjoy the fun. There will be some kind of blowback, just as there was in Afghanistan.

No way NATO has any place in this with NoFlyZones or the rest...NATO has several times gone beyond its mandate as a Mutual Defence Pact and has lost credibility.

This is really a job for the UN. This is what it is for. (sigh. If only, eh?)

[Burque73]

It's going to cost us each of us more than a little, we're essentially in WW3 vs Russia without people being killed and our cities destroyed.

The damage is almost economic the resulting inflation is going to hurt, if you have a mortgage lock down the rate.

Western governments need to go all in to end the war as soon as possible and limit damage to our economies.

We waited till the 11th hour to refinance the mortgage but did manage to lock in a lower rate just one day before Putin invaded.


I too thought, great, what good will sanctions do? He kills his brother and gets his allowance taken away? What good is that?

Sanctionqs are certainly more than an inconvenience now.

Just filled the gas tank and prices are up and going higher. $3.47 at Costco, near $4.00 elsewhere.

[earlfor]

Imo, a No-Fly Zone will be rapidly followed by a Nuke-Fly Zone.
Don't say I didn't warn ya.
Putin is the Mad Hatter of Moscow, for whatever weird reason, chemical or medical.

A no fly zone only works if it can be enforced, and it would require that, and the collateral damages from that path are unacceptable.

[Brendan W]

It's going to cost us each of us more than a little, we're essentially in WW3 vs Russia without people being killed and our cities destroyed.

The damage is almost economic the resulting inflation is going to hurt, if you have a mortgage lock down the rate.

Western governments need to go all in to end the war as soon as possible and limit damage to our economies.

It is going to cost, but only a little by comparison to what the Ukrainian people are paying.
One thing that strikes me is the faith they have in themselves and that they will support each other no matter what.
Perhaps in the West we have lost some of that and tend to view our future security through the prism of the economy or a bank balance which could disappear overnight as opposed to community solidarity which endures and knows no bounds.

[Gorminrider]

I heard an interesting idea yesterday. Offer the Russian soldiers a job or just a holiday in ,say, Spain for the duration. Encourage desertion with a concrete option. "Don't fight- take a sunny sabbatical! "

[wyly]

A no fly zone only works if it can be enforced, and it would require that, and the collateral damages from that path are unacceptable.

Give the Ukrainians all the planes they've asked for and all the armaments that go with them. Putin has no reason to back down unless his nose is truly bloodied he needs to understand he can't win.

[wyly]

Even the Oligarchs yachts are being confiscated if they show up in a European port ......

It's good optics taking a $500 million yacht from an Oligarch but it's not much more than an annoyance to an Oligarch worth many billions, even a private jet is small change.

[dpep]

A few B-52s would permanently stop that 40 mile convoy in the Ukraine and...

A few more would send the remaining Ruskies back from whence they came with their tails between their legs. I wonder how an ark light remix would sound. I bet it would be a smash hit. Number one with a bullet.

No doubt on both counts but I am not sure it would be the best tool to use, particularly for the convoy. They aren't exactly a precision weapon. The collateral damage to Ukraine infrastructure, countryside, and to close by Ukrainians would be massive. Air to ground strikes by fighter-bombers and attack helicopters would likely work best. It would be a turkey shoot not unlike the HIghway of Death in Kuwaint during the first Gulf War.

I am thinking the best strategy for the convoy would be to just take out the front and leave the back open for them to turn and leave posthaste. That assumes of course that they have enough gasoline to make it back to Russia or Belarus. Maybe we could air drop some petrol cans along with maps showing the way home for them. There could also be some pictures of the front of the convoy to let them know what is in store for anyone still thinking about moving forward.

If we were not concerned about triggering a nuclear war the best use of the B52s would be on the staging areas inside the borders of Russia and Belarus. That would end the ability of Russia to conduct a conventional war in Ukraine. But we are dealing with a belligerent and unstable narcissist in command of a huge nuclear arsenal. And tempted as we are to just kick Putin's a$$ the adults have to be thinking about what we want the end game to be. If we want to get rid of Putin we may be better off using the economic sanctions to turn the Russian populace against him. We definitely do not want to do anything he can use to help rally his countrymen around him. That means we must keep on board with us the other countries of the world participating in those sanctions.

In other words, it's complicated if you want to do it right.

I believe the preferred spelling of a B52 strike is arc light or arclight. I have a picture of one taken from the air that I will try to locate....also a couple of funny stories.
...

[earlfor]

Give the Ukrainians all the planes they've asked for and all the armaments that go with them. Putin has no reason to back down unless his nose is truly bloodied he needs to understand he can't win.

I don't see Putin backing down regardless of what the price is. He doesn't care about that, only saving his face.
Considering a history of previous Russian invasions, including Hungary in 1956, Czechoslovakia in 1968 and Georgia in 2008 and the annexation of the Crimea region of Ukraine in 2014, the world has stood by and watched. He sees this time as no different. Why would he stop with Ukraine rather than continue on to invade the next country on his list? Same problem ....again! One piranha eats the whale one piece at a time.

Russia will not stop at Ukraine. This will be repeated for other victims as in the past.

[Baatfam]

I heard an interesting idea yesterday. Offer the Russian soldiers a job or just a holiday in ,say, Spain for the duration. Encourage desertion with a concrete option. "Don't fight- take a sunny sabbatical! "

How about $40K and a new life, in a new country?

[wyly]

I don't see Putin backing down regardless of what the price is. He doesn't care about that, only saving his face.
Considering a history of previous Russian invasions, including Hungary in 1956, Czechoslovakia in 1968 and Georgia in 2008 and the annexation of the Crimea region of Ukraine in 2014, the world has stood by and watched. He sees this time as no different. Why would he stop with Ukraine rather than continue on to invade the next country on his list? Same problem ....again! One piranha eats the whale one piece at a time.

Russia will not stop at Ukraine. This will be repeated for other victims as in the past.

Each of those invasions was a walkover, it was the equivalent of a heavyweight boxer taking on a high school kid and the rest of the school standing by watching it happen repeatedly. He can personally shelter himself from the economic indefinitely the pressure needs to be applied to any sane minds who are in positions of strength. It's a matter of who has the balls to take the lead.