Ukraine russia invasion predictions

[Gorminrider]

The original question of this thread was predicting the imminent invasion well that's come and gone what's the next significant event.

I'd guess it's the point in time at which the Russian economy collapses, I can't foresee the war ending until the Russia economy falls completely apart and Putin depossed.

So the question becomes when will that happen, a month, 2 months, 3, 6?

If it doesn't escalate to biological gas attacks (which The Poisoner is hinting at) it's going to be a "Syrian" war, a "Sarajevo" war, a "Chechnya" war.
Surround and pummel until Russia's arms factories wear their tools out. I don't know if the will exists in Russia to take him down. Historically,'it's awfully hard to get out from under in Russia.

Zelensky is "all in". I'm afraid that his lack of experience and fixed determination have contributed to this showdown. I can't blame him for that but I can't help wondering if some subtle diplomacy and patience might have served the situation better at the outset. He seems a bit like a loose cannon.

add: I hear Russia is borrowing some Syrian soldiers? Is that right? Because they don't mind killing slavs? Cripes....

[Buffalo Bill]

RadioFreeEurope video reporting

This is the kind of location reporting I've been waiting to appear. Watch their other videos from Ukraine also:

[earlfor]

If it doesn't escalate to biological gas attacks (which The Poisoner is hinting at) it's going to be a "Syrian" war, a "Sarajevo" war, a "Chechnya" war.
Surround and pummel until Russia's arms factories wear their tools out. I don't know if the will exists in Russia to take him down. Historically,'it's awfully hard to get out from under in Russia.

Zelensky is "all in". I'm afraid that his lack of experience and fixed determination have contributed to this showdown. I can't blame him for that but I can't help wondering if some subtle diplomacy and patience might have served the situation better at the outset. He seems a bit like a loose cannon.

add: I hear Russia is borrowing some Syrian soldiers? Is that right? Because they don't mind killing slavs? Cripes....

I think Ukraine/ Zelensky knows what Russian rule is, and means, and that is why they will resist until whatever end it requires. I also think neither of us has a real understanding of what Russian rule is.

[Cipher]

hey the us banned importation of USDs into russia. Physical money that is.
During the soviet era a mountain of greasy worn ones was the medium of thee underground economy.

[LAB3]

I think Ukraine/ Zelensky knows what Russian rule is, and means, and that is why they will resist until whatever end it requires. I also think neither of us has a real understanding of what Russian rule is.

I'm fortunate to interact with people from all over the world on a regular basis. Those that I've met from the former (remember, FORMER) Soviet bloc will tell you that things under communism where actually pretty good for the average person as long as you kept your mouth shut about how things where being run. Jobs where easy to get and you had the ability to switch them if you felt burned out or overwhelmed. Housing and food where not an issue and recreational opportunities where available to most if not all people. It wasn't until after the fall of communism that things become tougher but at least you could whine and complain without getting thrown in the pokey.

A couple of guys I know from Finland went to Russia for the first about three years ago. They rented four wheel drive rigs and ran around the countryside for two weeks and said that in most cases they had MORE freedom to act like ignorant American rednecks there than they did back home. One Russian lady I was writing to for awhile was a huge fan of Che Guevara and Fidel Castro, she was too young to remember what life was like under Soviet rule. She had zero idea why the Cuban revolution happened and was more in love with the romanticized idea of the rebel than the reasoning behind their actions. She admitted to me that it was the "Old people" that had a problem with her being a fan of them.

A week or two back I posted a video by the Russian punk band Pussy Riot, there was a documentary filmed about them which is easily seen free on many streaming services. They where arrested for showing up in a cathedral and performing a piece they did about Putin aligning himself with The Russian Orthodox Church, they where arrested and put on trial for that action. These gals where (and still are) on a mission to discredit Putin and generally acted out of order during the entire trial which landed them two years in prison. The one member, who had a child she wanted to be at home with to raise chose to admit that what she did was wrong and was released at the trial, she wasn't fined and didn't do any time.

Let's not confuse what we knew "Back in the day" with what we know now. Even the previously famous comedian Yakov Smirnoff (who is local to the Branson area these days) knows his act is out of date, he's just playing off peoples impressions of what Russia was once like.

[earlfor]

I'm fortunate to interact with people from all over the world on a regular basis. Those that I've met from the former (remember, FORMER) Soviet bloc will tell you that things under communism where actually pretty good for the average person as long as you kept your mouth shut about how things where being run. Jobs where easy to get and you had the ability to switch them if you felt burned out or overwhelmed. Housing and food where not an issue and recreational opportunities where available to most if not all people. It wasn't until after the fall of communism that things become tougher but at least you could whine and complain without getting thrown in the pokey.

A couple of guys I know from Finland went to Russia for the first about three years ago. They rented four wheel drive rigs and ran around the countryside for two weeks and said that in most cases they had MORE freedom to act like ignorant American rednecks there than they did back home. One Russian lady I was writing to for awhile was a huge fan of Che Guevara and Fidel Castro, she was too young to remember what life was like under Soviet rule. She had zero idea why the Cuban revolution happened and was more in love with the romanticized idea of the rebel than the reasoning behind their actions. She admitted to me that it was the "Old people" that had a problem with her being a fan of them.

A week or two back I posted a video by the Russian punk band Pussy Riot, there was a documentary filmed about them which is easily seen free on many streaming services. They where arrested for showing up in a cathedral and performing a piece they did about Putin aligning himself with The Russian Orthodox Church, they where arrested and put on trial for that action. These gals where (and still are) on a mission to discredit Putin and generally acted out of order during the entire trial which landed them two years in prison. The one member, who had a child she wanted to be at home with to raise chose to admit that what she did was wrong and was released at the trial, she wasn't fined and didn't do any time.

Let's not confuse what we knew "Back in the day" with what we know now. Even the previously famous comedian Yakov Smirnoff (who is local to the Branson area these days) knows his act is out of date, he's just playing off peoples impressions of what Russia was once like.

Being in a country as a vacationing foreigner for a few weeks or month, is not the same experience as living in a country for a few years and being treated as a local. I think your experience is inadequate.. If the Russian perspective was so wonderful, Ukraine would have met them with flowers, instead of guns. They chose solidarity and to the last bullet and the last man instead. What would cause you to choose that option?

[LAB3]

Being in a country as a vacationing foreigner for a few weeks or month, is not the same experience as living in a country for a few years and being treated as a local. I think your experience is inadequate.. If the Russian perspective was so wonderful, Ukraine would have met them with flowers, instead of guns. They chose solidarity and to the last bullet and the last man instead. What would cause you to choose that option?

How true, vacationing (or working as in my case) in a country for a month isn't the same as living there long term. In no way am I trying to paint life in the former soviet bloc as being "wonderful" rather remind people that our impressions are generally much different from the realities of what it's like to be there, nothing more. We also cannot overlook the fact that cultures evolve at their own rates, not everyone is going to have the same or similar view on the world as ours depending on the histories the people have experienced. Let's face it, our country (The U.S.) is rather backward socially in many respects compared to other developed nations. In other particular respects, it's even less evolved than even some less developed nations.

[Rob S.]

All of my grandparents got out of "d'old country" (Ukraine and Poland) before the tsar was overthrown, but they still maintained that, as bad as the tsar was, he was not as bad as what followed. I'm inclined to agree.

Anecdotal:

Several Ukrainians report that when speaking with their parents in Russia, their parents insisted that no such war or invasion was taking place in Ukraine. But the younger generations of Russia know what's going on.

[earlfor]

All of my grandparents got out of "d'old country" (Ukraine and Poland) before the tsar was overthrown, but they still maintained that, as bad as the tsar was, he was not as bad as what followed. I'm inclined to agree.

Anecdotal:

Several Ukrainians report that when speaking with their parents in Russia, their parents insisted that no such war or invasion was taking place in Ukraine. But the younger generations of Russia know what's going on.

When the truth is suppressed, ignorance grows.

Ukraine took the only option they had. I would never consider rolling over, playing dead, and handing Russia my country an option.

[LAB3]

All of my grandparents got out of "d'old country" (Ukraine and Poland) before the tsar was overthrown, but they still maintained that, as bad as the tsar was, he was not as bad as what followed. I'm inclined to agree.

Anecdotal:

Several Ukrainians report that when speaking with their parents in Russia, their parents insisted that no such war or invasion was taking place in Ukraine. But the younger generations of Russia know what's going on.

See now you got lucky in that respect. I'm old enough to not have known any of my relatives from "The old country" other than one great-grandmother (by marriage) My parents howeer WHERE old enough to know them. Even after "White flight" took us out of the polish/slavic enclave of Detroit known as "Poletown" it was strictly forbidden to ask or even talk about the "old country" As an adult I can understand that this was done to forget the past and leave it behind.

The great-grndmother mentioned earlier made a trip back home to Poland in the mid-70's. She was visiting us shortly after and we made up a care package of stuff to send to our younger relatives that where about our age. She said the kids over there thought kids our age all had dirt bikes and stacks upon stacks of Levi's jeans among other things. As for the adult part of the package, we shipped a couple of Polish canned hams bought at the local K-Mart, something that was inaccessible to them along with genuine Levi's for the youngsters. They wrote down the measurements they needed in metric so I got to do the math and also find a picture of Tadeusz Kościuszko for one of them that wanted it. Had to cut it out of an encyclopedia at the library, don't tell my mom about that. "No really, it was from an old periodical"

[Rob S.]

See now you got lucky in that respect. I'm old enough to not have known any of my relatives from "The old country" other than one great-grandmother (by marriage) My parents howeer WHERE old enough to know them. Even after "White flight" took us out of the polish/slavic enclave of Detroit known as "Poletown" it was strictly forbidden to ask or even talk about the "old country" As an adult I can understand that this was done to forget the past and leave it behind.

The great-grndmother mentioned earlier made a trip back home to Poland in the mid-70's. She was visiting us shortly after and we made up a care package of stuff to send to our younger relatives that where about our age. She said the kids over there thought kids our age all had dirt bikes and stacks upon stacks of Levi's jeans among other things. As for the adult part of the package, we shipped a couple of Polish canned hams bought at the local K-Mart, something that was inaccessible to them along with genuine Levi's for the youngsters. They wrote down the measurements they needed in metric so I got to do the math and also find a picture of Tadeusz Kościuszko for one of them that wanted it. Had to cut it out of an encyclopedia at the library, don't tell my mom about that. "No really, it was from an old periodical"

My father's father loved to talk about his old "shtetl" near Kiev, and I loved to listen. Anatevka (Fiddler On The Roof) seems boring by comparison. And my mother's father made a trip to his old hometown of Girardoff (Zyrodow) in Poland in the 1970's. He was obsessed with finding the house he was born in, perhaps some family friends.

I considered him naive, to put it kindly, while the adults thought he was stupid. No good could come from such journey. He came back very depressed. Girardoff was a sizable city even in the 1890's, and he believed he would be able to find some people, some person, who would recognize the names of his family or friends. But all he found was the house.

"Are there any Jews here?"

"No."

"None?"

"None."

[LAB3]

"Are there any Jews here?"

"No."

"None?"

"None."

In order to get back on track while addressing your subject, I've come up with some solid ideas as to how Putin ties "Nazification" into his justification to invade the Ukraine.

President Trump made many comments about how Europe needs to take a greater role in their own military defense. With Germany being the strongest economy in the E.U. it would appear from recent reports that they're going to be putting more resources into doing just that. Scary stuff from a historical perspective! Add to that Germany's economic strength and the influence that exerts on the E.U. and it doesn't take too much imagination in the mind of a cold warrior like Putin that they'd be seen as a threat. I'm of the faith that the Germans have done a good job at addressing the sins of their past, let's hope the Russians have as well. As to our own American mentality, that's something that needs a bit more work. Let's hope that America's seemingly codependent nature toward letting other places evolve in their own manner gets toned down a bit. Like they say in smoke filled basements where people address each other on a first name basis: "Progress, not perfection"

[earlfor]

Ukraine goes on the IT attack against Russia with information war.

https://news.yahoo.com/shaming-apple-texting-musk-ukraine-151230727.html

[bccap]

Looks like Russia has asked China for military aid ..... Can't see China's motivation here other than pi$$ing off the west ... Ideologically they have no alliance with Russia and certainly couldn't give a sh!t about the Ukraine .... I can't see why they would do it ......

https://www.ft.com/content/30850470-8c8c-4b53-aa39-01497064a7b7

[earlfor]

Looks like Russia has asked China for military aid ..... Can't see China's motivation here other than pi$$ing off the west ... Ideologically they have no alliance with Russia and certainly couldn't give a sh!t about the Ukraine .... I can't see why they would do it ......

https://www.ft.com/content/30850470-...9-01497064a7b7

I doubt China will be supporting Russia because Russia has nothing it can't do without, but China does need the economic goodwill of the rest of the world. Also, Russia is not a large enough market to sustain china's export capacity.