Ukraine russia invasion predictions

[wyly]

The US "tattletale" tactic is pretty interesting.

We're not going to send in the US military, but we're not going to leave any room for surprises. pretexts, or excuses other than "Vlad wants this territory, and doesn't care how many people die".

Much quieter is the massive amount of assistance from Western nations in place; supplies, materials, weapons, and of course intelligence.

The west/NATO is not going risk war with Russia but exposing everything Putin is doing does shape world opinion against Russia as blatant and unprovoked aggression.

Supplying Ukraine with means to bloody Putin's forces won't help him at home when body bags start coming home.

[Cipher]

They should call up Afghanistan recruit a few Mujahadeen.

[LAB3]

it now seems as if the russians are just manipulating markets and milking the profits from their policy swings.

That's been my position from the beginning, an invasion of Ukraine would have a detrimental effect on the Russian economy in the short term with no payback in the longer term.

Weather for next two weeks looks good, light rain Monday/Tuesday.

Warmer weather isn't the thing you want when you're moving heavy equipment over frozen ground or even frozen roads for that matter. Most of what I've been reading this last week is saying he's already passed the window for pulling off a successful invsion this year when taken from a purely logistical perspective. In about 3-4 weeks most of eastern Ukraine will become bog mashes.

[Buffalo Bill]

The US "tattletale" tactic is pretty interesting.

We're not going to send in the US military, but we're not going to leave any room for surprises. pretexts, or excuses other than "Vlad wants this territory, and doesn't care how many people die".

Much quieter is the massive amount of assistance from Western nations in place; supplies, materials, weapons, and of course intelligence.

I agree, plus certainly we agree about the massive amounts of intelligence provided here in the vortex.

[Buffalo Bill]

Warmer weather isn't the thing you want when you're moving heavy equipment over frozen ground or even frozen roads for that matter. Most of what I've been reading this last week is saying he's already passed the window for pulling off a successful invsion this year when taken from a purely logistical perspective. In about 3-4 weeks most of eastern Ukraine will become bog mashes.

I'm reminded of all the videos on utube showing WW2 vintage T-34 tanks pulled out of old bogs. Seems like what's old is still new.

[wyly]

That's been my position from the beginning, an invasion of Ukraine would have a detrimental effect on the Russian economy in the short term with no payback in the longer term.



Warmer weather isn't the thing you want when you're moving heavy equipment over frozen ground or even frozen roads for that matter. Most of what I've been reading this last week is saying he's already passed the window for pulling off a successful invsion this year when taken from a purely logistical perspective. In about 3-4 weeks most of eastern Ukraine will become bog mashes.

The Putin has assembled what his generals have assured him is an overwhelming force and will have all taken their objects in 3-4 weeks. Olympics are over today, expect the invasion as soon as tomorrow morning.

The only thing that will save the Ukraine is if they have the resolve and capability to surprise the invaders. Invasion needs to be costly and bloody to a point where it's not in Russia's interest to remain.

International sanctions need to bite hard to have any effect, turning Russia into a bigger version of North Korea.

[LAB3]

International sanctions need to bite hard to have any effect, turning Russia into a bigger version of North Korea.

This would be the "simplest" way to do it, cut them off from this system:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Society_for_Worldwide_Interbank_Financial_Telecommunication

Of course about 1/3 of Europe's natural gas is imported from Russia and if they stop feeding the pipeline due to not getting paid things would suck continent wide.

[Brendan W]

I agree, plus certainly we agree about the massive amounts of intelligence provided here in the vortex.

Do you think we have a Mole in the house?

[Cipher]

This would be the "simplest" way to do it, cut them off from this system:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Society_for_Worldwide_Interbank_Financial_Telecommunication

Of course about 1/3 of Europe's natural gas is imported from Russia and if they stop feeding the pipeline due to not getting paid things would suck continent wide.

It won't happen the Germans have caved already.

[bccap]

Russian stock market down 12% this morning .... That ain't going to please the Oligarchs who keep Putin in there ..... Ruble taking a beating too and as Russian manufacturing is pretty much sweet fuddle duddle all consumer prices are about to take a rise for Joe Sixvodka .......

[wyly]

Satellite photo's and eye witness accounts on the Russia side of the border reveal the troops are on the move and nearing the Ukraine border. Invasion is imminent.

[bccap]

Gee .... I wonder what he'll decide ? ......

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/kremlin-says-no-concrete-plans-summit-with-biden-over-ukraine-2022-02-21/

[wyly]

Gee .... I wonder what he'll decide ? ......
https://www.reuters.com/markets/euro...ne-2022-02-21/

Putin has worked himself into a box, he can't back down. Early evening in Ukraine so it's not happening today, initial attacks will come in the dark of early morning hours.

[Cipher]

Putin has worked himself into a box, he can't back down. Early evening in Ukraine so it's not happening today, initial attacks will come in the dark of early morning hours.

Can't back down? Do you have any ability to reason? Its the same nonsense spewed by wannabe historians about the start of the great war. Germany absolutely could have said no way back then and Vladimir can certainly say no now.

Inevitability is a notion for stupid people to feel relieved of responsibility.

[RichDesmond]

A "relic"? Perhaps, but as a game player he ranks as excellent...

Looks more to me like he's boxed himself in with a bunch of bad options, and no good ones.