Ukraine russia invasion predictions

[wyly]

Anyone interested in predicting a date for the Russian invasion.
They require cold temps and frozen ground for their tanks so January or February.
My guess is they use the Olympics as a distraction thinking western countries won't want to disrupt the party, so less than 7 days before February 4th.
After the Olympics is too late in the season and the ground becomes unstable for tanks. As they're still stuck in a Stalinist past I'd guess it'll be on Sunday like the Hungarian invasion of 1956, so Sunday Jan 30.

[Cipher]

Do you have so little to do as to engage in the belittling and mockery of a potential world changing political event?

[RustyTank]

Anyone interested in predicting a date for the Russian invasion.
They require cold temps and frozen ground for their tanks so January or February.
My guess is they use the Olympics as a distraction thinking western countries won't want to disrupt the party, so less than 7 days before February 4th.
After the Olympics is too late in the season and the ground becomes unstable for tanks. As they're still stuck in a Stalinist past I'd guess it'll be on Sunday like the Hungarian invasion of 1956, so Sunday Jan 30.

No idea about date. What I'm most curious about is if/when Russia does invade will any other countries aid with troops on the ground? As I understand it Ukraine's military doesn't stand a chance against a Russian invasion. And right now the U.S. is saying it will only send aid in the form of military weapons, etc. But I don't know...it'll be interesting to see how the powers that be around the globe respond.

[bccap]

Pretty much a foregone conclusion they're going in ..... The question is what will be the consequences ..... How and in what way will the west retaliate ? .....

[wyly]

Do you have so little to do as to engage in the belittling and mockery of a potential world changing political event?

It's what every government, military and economist around the world is doing at the moment.

[wyly]

Pretty much a foregone conclusion they're going in ..... The question is what will be the consequences ..... How and in what way will the west retaliate ? .....

It's like the Nazi aggression pre WW2, they weren't stopped with the invasion of the Sudetenland and then they continued on. Russia never paid a price for Crimea and they've continued on. Consequences will be economic for Russia and the west I can't see open warfare with Nato, the Ukraine could cease to exist.

[wyly]

No idea about date. What I'm most curious about is if/when Russia does invade will any other countries aid with troops on the ground? As I understand it Ukraine's military doesn't stand a chance against a Russian invasion. And right now the U.S. is saying it will only send aid in the form of military weapons, etc. But I don't know...it'll be interesting to see how the powers that be around the globe respond.

Russia is obviously stronger but for the Ukraine it's a matter if they can make the cost too high, it's much better equipped and trained now than when the Crimea was taken over.

[Brendan W]

The EU gets about 40% of it's gas from Russia.
Gazprom says it has no capacity booked for the EU for February.

[Cipher]

It's what every government, military and economist around the world is doing at the moment.

Ok Feb 1st mums bday

[Grimly]

The EU gets about 40% of it's gas from Russia.
Gazprom says it has no capacity booked for the EU for February.

Gonna be a chilly winter in some parts.

[bccap]

It's like the Nazi aggression pre WW2, they weren't stopped with the invasion of the Sudetenland and then they continued on. Russia never paid a price for Crimea and they've continued on. Consequences will be economic for Russia and the west I can't see open warfare with Nato, the Ukraine could cease to exist.

I can't either ..... No way the west is going to war for the Ukraine ..... Putin has made no secret of his disdain for the breaking up of the USSR { and satellite countries } so this is in keeping with his restoration of Russian strength views ..... Also a fine line with economic sanctions as Putin owns Europe's gas station ...... My prediction ? .... The west burps and ..... Putin wins .......

[bwringer]

They waited until just after the winter Olympics in Sochi to take over Crimea. But that was only prudent, since Sochi was so close by.

That said, resistance this time around will be MUCH stiffer. The entire situation is much different. There are far fewer Russian sympathizers, and Ukraine is far better armed and far more determined this time around.

There's also been an interesting situation where a planned "false flag" attack has been widely publicized. So if Russia tries to drum up some excuse for invading, absolutely no one inside or outside Russia will believe them.

I don't know what Putin's end game could be with an invasion. Any way you slice it, any incursion will result in many, many thousands of dead Russian troops, not to mention billions or trillions of Rubles wasted; Ukraine will not and cannot hold back this time around, and they're more experienced and trained, and better-equipped. They are getting supplies and arms from the west, but I don't see western countries doing the actual fighting.

Further, Putin would be ordering these troops to die for a vague, (non-existent, actually) far-off future geopolitical threat; his paranoid idea that NATO is a threat to Russia, not just a curb or a fence. However, Ukraine would be fighting for survival against a clear present threat. That makes a difference.

I see, and hope for, something of a stalemate; months or maybe even years of threatening to invade.

One of the more painful consequences outside Ukraine could be to the European countries that buy gas and oil from Russia. If they invade soon, these supplies would be cut off in the middle of winter. An embargo would be needed to deprive Russia of much-needed cash, but could create a crisis when and where these products are needed most.

[Cipher]

Well thers a few things to reckon
Ukraine should have seen this coming and militarized to the bejeezus a la switzerland
Is Vlad a latter day pan slavist on his way to the adriatic?
The west has a lot to answer for in that they interfered in an ancient sphere of russian influence. Indeed historically a lot of the culture of Russia routed through Ukraine.
Is Ukraine just a sub culture of Russia? Is it worth at all dying for or the bones of a single Pomeranian musketeer?

Have the facebook tapping tik toking eurotrash rich politicos got the guts to lose and election much less a war?

Is Vlad just manipulating the price of oil and gas and generally being a great effing knob?

[bwringer]

Well thers a few things to reckon
Ukraine should have seen this coming and militarized to the bejeezus a la switzerland

They have.

Is Vlad a latter day pan slavist on his way to the adriatic?

He probably sees himself that way. To put it another way, he's 69 so the clock is ticking on his vision of re-creating the USSR (and then some). He's in a dangerous hurry...

The west has a lot to answer for in that they interfered in an ancient sphere of russian influence. Indeed historically a lot of the culture of Russia routed through Ukraine.
Is Ukraine just a sub culture of Russia? Is it worth at all dying for or the bones of a single Pomeranian musketeer?

True, the west has interfered with and has much to answer for in many places. And true that Ukraine and Russia are intertwined, although Ukranians would hardly call themselves a subculture. That said, Ukraine does seem to have a far more separate identity and is far more united against Russia now than when Crimea was annexed. And there are far fewer Russian sympathizers in Ukraine; Crimea was a lot more Russian.

Have the facebook tapping tik toking eurotrash rich politicos got the guts to lose and election much less a war?

Reply hazy, try again.

Is Vlad just manipulating the price of oil and gas and generally being a great effing knob?

Perhaps, and absolutely.

[wyly]

I can't either ..... No way the west is going to war for the Ukraine ..... Putin has made no secret of his disdain for the breaking up of the USSR { and satellite countries } so this is in keeping with his restoration of Russian strength views ..... Also a fine line with economic sanctions as Putin owns Europe's gas station ...... My prediction ? .... The west burps and ..... Putin wins .......

I agree with most of that. Putin is nostalgic for his lost empire the way he struts around his palace you'd think he fancies himself the new Tsar, Russia sees itself like Britain and it's lost empire the problem with that is those former conquered territories don't share that nostalgia. Putin probably believes the west won't think it's worth the effort that economics are all that matters that west will be peeved for a while but money matters to the west than the Ukraine. That's a big gamble he didn't need to do this unless he feels his grip on power is slipping in Russia. If there are sanctions at the level of what is in effect with N Korea, Iran, Cuba there will be trouble on the home front.

If diplomacy leaves him room to save face and delay until after the Olympics and late February the window for invasion likely closes until summer. This winter timetable was clearly planned to make Europeans uneasy in regards to fuel supply. I don't think Europeans have the option to back down, if they don't stand their ground now they never will.