Ukraine russia invasion predictions

[GS1150Pilot]

Putin has domestic issues which are always patched up when he goes on the offensive against neighbors.

Geopolitical events both at home and abroad have led to Putin’s popularity fluctuating widely since 1999, according to polls conducted by the independent Levada Center.
When Russia annexed Crimea, Putin’s popularity soared from 61% to 85%, for example, but since then his ratings have steadily declined to their current level, of 64% in September.
Whether Russians believe Putin can solve the country’s internal problems, or should stay in power after 2024 is another matter.
Levada’s latest survey on Putin’s standing with the Russian people, of 1,634 adults in late September with the results released this week, showed that 47% of Russians would like to see Putin remain as president after 2024, while 42% do not want that — the highest rate since 2013.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/14/what...-citizens.html

[Buffalo Bill]

Caught in a trap of his/their own making…
I keep thinking of the beginning of the war with Japan.
The US put increasing sanctions on Japan for it's invasion of Manchuria and China, until a total oil embargo by the US (US controlled oil).
That trapped Japan like an animal in a corner, so they turned on the US with full commitment.
They did a lot of damage before it was settled.

[Cipher]

Caught in a trap of his/their own making…
I keep thinking of the beginning of the war with Japan.
The US put increasing sanctions on Japan for it's invasion of Manchuria and China, until a total oil embargo by the US (US controlled oil).
That trapped Japan like an animal in a corner, so they turned on the US with full commitment.
They did a lot of damage before it was settled.

Ahh yes but US imperialism was not aggression and Japanese were after all displacing the British in an altruistic effort to free their Asian brethren.

For all this talk of Taiwan no one seems to recall the Japanese processed it for about 70 yrs or more. Maybe they should throw their hat in the ring and start dicking around.

Also the Turks should invade Ukraine too and take us back in time.

[Rob S.]

Caught in a trap of his/their own making…
I keep thinking of the beginning of the war with Japan.
The US put increasing sanctions on Japan for it's invasion of Manchuria and China, until a total oil embargo by the US (US controlled oil).
That trapped Japan like an animal in a corner, so they turned on the US with full commitment.
They did a lot of damage before it was settled.

I always thought: how could a tiny island nation like Japan ever believe they could defeat the U.S.? I suppose they were feeling confident after the Russo-Japanese war, but their own top admiral said that 'if they don't surrender within six months of Pearl Harbor, we have no chance.' Or Germany, which didn't have the population or resources (oil) to win a two-front war?

I mean, I always thought towards Japan and Germany: "Look at a friggin' map! We have year-round warm water ports on both major oceans, lots of resources, (oil, people, steel, etc), throw in the Panama Canal and it's a done deal."

[Grimly]

In the meantime, the Bear agreed to shyt on the ocean a bit further out, to keep fisherfolk happy.

https://www.donegaldaily.com/2022/01/29/russian-military-pull-out-of-irish-coastal-exercises/

[Cipher]

I always thought: how could a tiny island nation like Japan ever believe they could defeat the U.S.? I suppose they were feeling confident after the Russo-Japanese war, but their own top admiral said that 'if they don't surrender within six months of Pearl Harbor, we have no chance.' Or Germany, which didn't have the population or resources (oil) to win a two-front war?

I mean, I always thought towards Japan and Germany: "Look at a friggin' map! We have year-round warm water ports on both major oceans, lots of resources, (oil, people, steel, etc), throw in the Panama Canal and it's a done deal."

They clearly knew they could not win and hold territory. They didnt even have serious ambitions in Australia as they lacked manpower to garrison it.
Japan was seeking to impose a new order in which US and UK and French would be expelled.

The incursion into China would have more than given them manpower and markets had they succeeded.

If theyd won at Midway theyd have had time to allocate resources to these ambitions.
Had they gotten the British Raj inhabitants to revolt en masse again a different world.

But they lost so *@%^$*@%^$*@%^$*@%^$ em

[Buffalo Bill]

"Summer grasses
all that remains of great soldiers
imperial dreams"

[wyly]

I always thought: how could a tiny island nation like Japan ever believe they could defeat the U.S.? I suppose they were feeling confident after the Russo-Japanese war, but their own top admiral said that 'if they don't surrender within six months of Pearl Harbor, we have no chance.' Or Germany, which didn't have the population or resources (oil) to win a two-front war?

I mean, I always thought towards Japan and Germany: "Look at a friggin' map! We have year-round warm water ports on both major oceans, lots of resources, (oil, people, steel, etc), throw in the Panama Canal and it's a done deal."

Japan intended to annihilate the US Navy in the Pacific at Pearl Harbour and negotiate favourable peace treaty as they did with Russia in 1905. The USA in 1941 and Russia in 1905 with it's massive internal issues were very different countries.

Germany didn't want a two front war but failure to fully eliminate Britain first was certainly a fatal error, Germany may have defeated Russia without the threat in the rear.
.

[Rob S.]

Of course, Soviet machine guns were trained on the backs of their own soldiers, killing everyone who did not advance. No gun, no bullets, no matter. Pick it up from a dead soldier. The only quote I remember from that pig stalin is, "quantity has it's own quality." He probably plagiarized it.

The inability of Germany to cross the English Channel is a lesson to Communist China - it's a lot further to Taiwan, and they still might not have enough landing craft.

[Cipher]

Of course, Soviet machine guns were trained on the backs of their own soldiers, killing everyone who did not advance. No gun, no bullets, no matter. Pick it up from a dead soldier. The only quote I remember from that pig stalin is, "quantity has it's own quality." He probably plagiarized it.

The inability of Germany to cross the English Channel is a lesson to Communist China - it's a lot further to Taiwan, and they still might not have enough landing craft.

Germany could have crossed. They had transports and ready Hitler thought Germans and English people allies he waffled and lost time.
Stalin was no more a pig than Churchill or Roosevelt.

[GS1150Pilot]

Not sure I would equivocate between Stalin, Churchill and Roosevelt. How many Russians died under Stalin's tenure? English under Churchill? Americans under Roosevelt? No comparison.

[Gorminrider]

Germany could have crossed. They had transports and ready Hitler thought Germans and English people allies he waffled and lost time.
Stalin was no more a pig than Churchill or Roosevelt.

Not sure I would equivocate between Stalin, Churchill and Roosevelt.

+1. Stalin vs Churchill or FDR?-ha! No comparison whatsoever. None. Nada. Even Hitler needed all his Evil minions to hold a candle to Stalin.

As to beach-landings, they weren't a German forte. ...pretty hard to mount a blitzkreig from the beach especially without air superiority for which German fighter-planes didn't have the stamina .The landing-craft would have been a turkey-shoot for the R.N.

[Cipher]

Not sure I would equivocate between Stalin, Churchill and Roosevelt. How many Russians died under Stalin's tenure? English under Churchill? Americans under Roosevelt? No comparison.

well then how many? not that its a measure of the men in charge. The wealthy industrialized empires of the US and UK simply did not have the problems of the USSR. your view is tainted by anti communist anti soviet propaganda.
Churchill gave the world Gallipoli and enslaved peoples and was a drunk while making decisions as Stalin was. Roosevelt was an elitist bastard dabbling in socialism who was only intent on the best interests of the US to the detriment of anyone else.

[Cipher]

+1. Stalin vs Churchill or FDR?-ha! No comparison whatsoever. None. Nada. Even Hitler needed all his Evil minions to hold a candle to Stalin.

As to beach-landings, they weren't a German forte. ...pretty hard to mount a blitzkreig from the beach especially without air superiority for which German fighter-planes didn't have the stamina .The landing-craft would have been a turkey-shoot for the R.N.

based on what? where were they going to land? Do you know? The RN may have been huge but how many ships were available to contend with the kriegmarine had it been brought into play?
You need to stop getting your history from movies.

[Gorminrider]

I don't "get my history" from movies. The Germans don't know where they were going to land so how would I? ....and a notable example of the powers of the Kriegsmarine would be Dunkirk- a landing in reverse on German-controlled shores....i think the R.N would have rubbed their hands in glee if the Scharnhorst or the Bismark sailed into the channel...facts are, right from the start, the German surface fleet spent most of the war hiding from the R.N.