Ukraine russia invasion predictions

[wyly]

Would anyone care to comment on whether or not these guys are telling the truth, which seems to be that Putin, anticipating a walk in the park, sent in trans Ural troops with a story about an exercise?
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russ.../31726619.html

I worked with a guy whose entire family escaped the Soviet Union back in the 70's he had an interesting insight how Russians control ed uprisings. The troops they sent to put down the protests/rebellions weren't from the region that was creating the problem. If the region were slavic blue eyed blondes they'd send in ethic Asiatics like Kazaks, Uzbeks or Mongols, if it were an Asiatic region they send Latvians, Russians or Ukrainians...soldiers had less hesitancy to shoot people who weren't socially like them or looked like them. When soldiers are facing down their own people it's an enormous psychological barrier to shoot people who may be your family, friends and neighbours.

If you look at the history of unarmed protests vs autocratic governments many peaceful uprisings succeeded where armed uprisings failed because the soldiers refused to fire on their own people. Control can be maintained as long as it doesn't escalate past arrests and beatings, shooting is often a step too far and soldiers are liable to refuse and that's when governments topple.

If when the Russian banks go down and millions of Russians are without cash and running low on food it'll be a critical time for Putin and his ability to control the resulting protests.

[earlfor]

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy turned down a U.S. evacuation offer Friday, calling on Western powers to step up their assistance instead.
"The fight is here," he said, according to a translation of his remarks. "I need ammunition, not a ride."

[DaveR]

A must watch Netflix documentary - Winter on Fire ; Ukraines Fight for Freedom

[Cipher]

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy turned down a U.S. evacuation offer Friday, calling on Western powers to step up their assistance instead.
"The fight is here," he said, according to a translation of his remarks. "I need ammunition, not a ride."

He presently needs a relief column to bring in supplies.
Kiev is surrounded and cut off.
the puppet in Belarus is chomping to show loyalty even saying he wants nukes back ( as if vlad would be dumb enough to provide them)
Kudos to elon Musk for a total flake he surely is helping if he supplies enough of his star link nodes.

[Eli69]

So today I turned on the radio in the car and there was a weird noise. Kind of like the Emergency Broadcast System Test. I felt a bit tense. I just hope I don't start having the nuke war dreams I used to have in the 80's. They were extremely vivid.

[Cipher]

So today I turned on the radio in the car and there was a weird noise. Kind of like the Emergency Broadcast System Test. I felt a bit tense. I just hope I don't start having the nuke war dreams I used to have in the 80's. They were extremely vivid.

Wasn't pre perestroika a great time. Things were in such a frenzy while at school a really nice guy ran into the dorm tv room and said there had been a launch.
Things were so bad back then we actually believed it and walked out in the sunshine and waited. He lied of course for fun. Almost got a shot kicking for it.
the hopelessness and resignation were the worst parts of the atomic cold war era.

[bccap]

First tank stolen by a Ukrainian farmer LOL ......

https://twitter.com/i/status/1498023662695419910

[Grimly]

It's refreshing to see heroism in a nation's head of state.

If Boris were in Zelensky's boots, he'd be shytting a brick and looking for a military chopper out.

[earlfor]

First tank stolen by a Ukrainian farmer LOL ......

https://twitter.com/i/status/1498023662695419910

Breaking news: Russian soldiers seen walking back to Moscow after invasion called off due to Ukraine farmers stealing all Russian army vehicles. LOL

[Baatfam]

Russian stock market closed today....

[Brendan W]

If you look at the history of unarmed protests vs autocratic governments many peaceful uprisings succeeded where armed uprisings failed because the soldiers refused to fire on their own people. Control can be maintained as long as it doesn't escalate past arrests and beatings, shooting is often a step too far and soldiers are liable to refuse and that's when governments topple.

If when the Russian banks go down and millions of Russians are without cash and running low on food it'll be a critical time for Putin and his ability to control the resulting protests.

This Russian seems to be an odd mixture of surprise, embarrassment, conciliation and guilt.
Then why wouldn't he when faced with the ultimate secret weapon, an empty handed straight talking angry woman.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L17Bi7zBJHI

[bccap]

Russian stock market closed today....

Just tried to connect to see what the MOEX futures are .... Even their website is shut down ..... { either that or the west shut them down } .....

https://www.moex.com/a8114

[bccap]

Ruble down 30% ..... Interest rate more than doubles to 20% ..... Russian banks foreign reserves are gonzo ...... I didn't think the west could hurt them this bad but they can and it looks like they've got more ammunition they're just waiting to use ..... I thought Vlad would win this one easily but he may not ......

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-economy-poised-to-plunge-into-recession-warns-jp-morgan-120344770.html

[Cipher]

Ruble down 30% ..... Interest rate more than doubles to 20% ..... Russian banks foreign reserves are gonzo ...... I didn't think the west could hurt them this bad but they can and it looks like they've got more ammunition they're just waiting to use ..... I thought Vlad would win this one easily but he may not ......
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russi...120344770.html

Run on banks folks lining up.
The 20% wont cut it
The 1917 Revolution was sparked by *@%^$*@%^$*@%^$*@%^$ed off babushkas queuing for bread. Bread ran out they rioted.
Whats every Russian with a bank card going to do when there's a shortage of physical money.
They'll have to shutter banks.
Hell my local branch requires advance warning on 5 grand wads for withdrawal.
A few days ago credit cards frozen? These sanctions seem effective possibly because the integration with wealthy economies unlike NK

[Cipher]

Swiss have adopted the EU sanctions thus ummm not being neutral.