Ukraine russia invasion predictions

[bccap]

It's going to be some rare earth metals and some aluminum that north america is presently getting that'll be compromised. Nickel is also an issue although I'm not sure how much of it we need here and can go without, that could be a biggie. Someone else will need to pipe in on oil and gas, I'm not sure much of theirs goes into the refinery mix used here. Needless to say other countries WILL be hit hard over oil shortages and that'll drive up prices, you guy's will be scraping sludge in Alberta big time.

Another one I'm not sure of is our various sales to Russia and how that'll hit things we export to them and the money lost due to losing them from our markets.

Remember, over here. Keep your stick on the ice, we're all in this together!

She didn't say what the new sanctions will be .... But there are some indications .... No Russian ship is allowed in and I believe we get a small bit of oil from them ..... Plus all property owned by the Oligarchs is being identified .... To what end I don't know . Can't believe it might be confiscation but if they go that route it won't offend me ......

[trevor]

Apparently, I don't take the situation as lightly as you.

Oh come on Earl...you are just a little embarrassed for not picking up on the sarcasm...it's ok. But to think that people rob is not taking it seriously is pretty judgemental imo.

[earlfor]

In search of an off ramp.

https://currently.att.yahoo.com/news/bidens-dilemma-putin-off-ramp-104901893.html

[bwringer]

On a lighter note... there are reports that the Ukrainian government has announced that income citizens earn from scrapping or selling Russian military equipment will not be taxed.

Whether that's true, I don't know... but it should be.

[Cipher]

She didn't say what the new sanctions will be .... But there are some indications .... No Russian ship is allowed in and I believe we get a small bit of oil from them ..... Plus all property owned by the Oligarchs is being identified .... To what end I don't know . Can't believe it might be confiscation but if they go that route it won't offend me ......

The oligarchs abramovich is trying to offload his UK holdings. This needs to be stopped as clearly anyyone doing so is clearly part of a ruse and will more or less give the stuff back later.

if not screw profiteers. Seize the property outright now or even if its sells you bought it tough luck.

[bwringer]

There's a noticeable difference and slightly fresher air in many corners of teh intarwebnetz today as Russian troll farms, bots, and misinformation factories are either going unpaid or maybe being repurposed.

[LAB3]

There's a noticeable difference and slightly fresher air in many corners of teh intarwebnetz today as Russian troll farms, bots, and misinformation factories are either going unpaid or maybe being repurposed.

Nobody has said much about COVID for a week now. The pundits have no spin on anything other than perhaps the State of the Union. This entire town is CHILL the last few days, kinda like it was in the 80's with fewer televangelists and Rasslin' on TV.

[bccap]

The Russian stock exchange might be still closed but major companies also trade on the London Stock Exchange ...... Large oil companies and banks down 75% to 90% and reduced to penny stocks ..... I imagine there are more than a few Oligarchs a tad on the pi$$ed side ....... At this rate Putin isn't going to be able to pay those soldier's salaries ...... I fuddle duddling love it ! ......

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gazprom-lukoil-and-sberbank-are-now-penny-stocks-as-russian-companies-collapse-in-london-11646227312

[Rob S.]

Putins election are truly fixed results...

Duh! Ya think?

Sorry, but you've got to admit, you set yourself up for that one. You feed me a line, I'm going to hit it out of the park. Yeah - another Sportsball reference!

[Rob S.]

Waterloo

I'll make a bold prediction: This is the beginning of the end for Putin. It might take a month, it might take a year, but he's had it. The only question is how much of Russia, Europe, or the entire world will he be able to drag down with him.

Some points:

A couple of the oligarchs have already bailed on him. One was forced to sell his U.K. soccer sportsball team, and he publicly disassociated from Putin. (I'd guess he's 'overseas' somewhere, as opposed to actually being brave with his bodily health. He's a businessman, not a martyr.)

I can't think of any pleasant places that would offer him a comfortable retirement, the way Saudi Arabia did for Idi Amin. China? I wouldn't bet on it. Belarus? North Korea? Probably, if he can scrape up the entry fee, but I don't think he'd enjoy it. He's become so accustomed to electric lights. He would consider the Democratic Republic of Korea only as a last resort, if the sword was dangling overhead. Which I think it is.

I hear that The Hague might have a room for him, three hots and a cot. Heck, he'd even get his own blanket.

I was wrong in '89, of course, about China.

[LAB3]

Here's something I didn't know, now things are making more sense (as if war ever does) Looks like Ukraine has a whole bunch of Lithium, they should send some to Putin.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/02/climate/ukraine-lithium.html

[bccap]

When Germany invaded Poland the world went to war ..... The difference between now and then is Germany thought they could win it .... Putin is well aware that he cannot win a world war nuclear or conventional ..... But he is also well aware that the west just won't do it ...... But he has severely underestimated western unity and the willingness to pull out all the stops to cripple Russia's economy .....And we are doing it successfully ..... I think the solution will be how to let him out of this mess and save face ..... Though the consequences in this case are not WW 3 as was the case in the Cuban missile crisis there is a similarity in that a method of defusing the situation was contingent on Kruschev's ability to save face in the Kremlin ......

[wyly]

Though the consequences in this case are not WW 3 as was the case in the Cuban missile crisis there is a similarity in that a method of defusing the situation was contingent on Kruschev's ability to save face in the Kremlin ......

It depends on your viewpoint, the USA was the one that was allowed to save face over Cuba missile crisis. In order to have the Soviets remove their nukes from Cuba the USA first had to agree to move it's Nukes from Turkey, Khrushchev won. Khrushchev allowed Kennedy to save face by agreeing not to disclose the Turkish missile withdrawal.

Propaganda of the time made it seem like the US won the stand off and the Soviets backing off, at the time the public wasn't aware there were American nukes in Turkey. Not much different today with Russians hearing totally different version of events than we do, the Kremlin suppressing the reality of what's happening in the Ukraine.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2013/01/the-real-cuban-missile-crisis/309190/

[earlfor]

When Germany invaded Poland the world went to war ..... The difference between now and then is Germany thought they could win it .... Putin is well aware that he cannot win a world war nuclear or conventional ..... But he is also well aware that the west just won't do it ...... But he has severely underestimated western unity and the willingness to pull out all the stops to cripple Russia's economy .....And we are doing it successfully ..... I think the solution will be how to let him out of this mess and save face ..... Though the consequences in this case are not WW 3 as was the case in the Cuban missile crisis there is a similarity in that a method of defusing the situation was contingent on Kruschev's ability to save face in the Kremlin ......

I believe Putin severely underestimated world resistance to a Soviet takeover of Ukraine. He had/has no plan B for withdrawal and saving face, and now he is all in with his bridges burned. He knows he can over run Ukraine and occupy it, but he also knows he will not be able to hold it, and certainly not be able to return it to the Soviet conglomerate. He doesn't have the resources to do that. Every way I look at it, he is in a lose, lose position. He will not gain the resources of Ukraine. The truly frightening aspect is if he can not add Ukraine to the "fold", there is a high risk that he will take the stance of; "If I can't have it, no one else will either". He will level and burn the country to the ground and execute Ukrainians to teach the world a lesson. The Putin perspective is; you have a beautiful house and I have a crummy shack. I want equality. I will burn your house down. We have a madman. There is only one person in the world that wants Russian soldiers invading Ukraine. Not even the soldiers want to invade Ukraine. One guy holding the world at gun point.

[Gorminrider]

In search of an off ramp.

https://currently.att.yahoo.com/news...104901893.html

Exactly. What would YOU do? It's gotten a lot harder since the invasion. He's all in and it's going to be hard to "save face" backing out. (aka Vietnam, Afghanistan etc-long weary pustules leaking death with no result ).Right now, the outlook is that a change of leadership might jump off a tall-enough heap of bodybags or starved citizens and knock Putin down.

Win or lose the invasion, everyone's positions are hardened and the demands will include a "restored" Crimea which I doubt will happen in any Russia. I suppose they could "Pakistan","Czech-Slovak" or "Yugoslav" the contentious areas.
...My wishful hindsight, but if these sanctions had been implemented when Russian troops went into Crimea and Donetsk.....the NATO question is very sad. Perhaps if Russia had joined the EU back in the honeymoon days....